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Should I sell
now or wait?
Run the honest math.

Most move-up sellers in Cedar City and St. George are stuck on the same question. Most agents handwave it with a tagline. I built this to show you the actual math, side by side, across four scenarios: sell today, wait six months, wait a year, wait two years. Sometimes waiting really is the better move. Sometimes it costs you. Plug in your numbers and see.

Run my numbers See how it works
6.36%
30-year fixed, Freddie Mac PMMS
6.2%
Fannie Mae forecast, Q2 2027
2-4%
Utah 2026 appreciation, Kem C. Gardner
4
Scenarios compared side by side
Now. 6 mo. 12 mo. 24 mo.

Rate data from Freddie Mac PMMS, forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association, appreciation from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah. Updated May 16, 2026. Brokered by Real Broker LLC.

Current Market Snapshot

What rates and prices are
actually doing right now.

Loading the current market summary...

View the sources I used
    Freddie Mac (current)
    6.36%

    30-year fixed, week of May 14, 2026. Down from 6.81% a year ago.

    Fannie Mae (forecast)
    6.3%

    Average through the rest of 2026. Easing to 6.2% by Q2 2027.

    MBA (forecast)
    6.3-6.4%

    Range across both 2026 and 2027. Less optimistic than Fannie Mae.

    Kem C. Gardner Institute
    2-4%

    Utah home price appreciation forecast for 2026. Stabilization, not surge.

    The rate lock-in trap

    You are not
    comparing
    the right two things.

    If you bought or refinanced in 2020 or 2021, you are probably sitting on a 3 or 4 percent mortgage. The thought of trading that for a 6 percent rate feels painful, and it should, on the payment side. Over 61 percent of US mortgage holders have a rate below 4 percent right now, according to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah. You are not alone in that math.

    But the right comparison is not your old payment versus your new payment. It is selling now versus selling later. If your reason for moving is real (more space, less stairs, a different neighborhood, closer to family, financial right-sizing), then the question is whether waiting actually saves you money or costs you money. That is what the calculator answers.

    The wrong question

    "Should I trade my 3.6 percent rate for a 6.4 percent rate?"

    The right question

    "Does waiting make me more money than selling today, after accounting for what my next home costs by then, and the carrying costs I pay during the wait?"

    Reason 1
    Your next home also appreciates.

    If you are moving up, the next home appreciates in more dollars than your current home. A 3% gain on a $725K home is $21,750. A 3% gain on a $525K home is $15,750. The gap of $6,000 a year is real money that comes out of your move-up math.

    Reason 2
    Carrying costs compound.

    Taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance keep running every month you wait. A typical Southern Utah carrying cost of $850 a month is $10,200 over a year, $20,400 over two. That is real money leaving your pocket that the rate forecast has to overcome before waiting wins.

    Reason 3
    The rate forecast might be wrong.

    In March 2026, Fannie Mae was projecting rates in the high 5% range by year-end. Two months later, after the Iran conflict began, they revised to 6.3%. Twelve-month forecasts have wide error bands. Twenty-four-month forecasts are essentially educated guesses.

    The Calculator

    Plug in your numbers.
    See the math.

    Defaults are pre-filled with current rates and a typical Southern Utah move-up scenario. Edit anything to match your situation. The math updates as you type.

    Step 01

    Your current home

    $

    Not sure what it is worth? Get the real number

    $
    %
    $
    $

    Taxes, insurance, HOA, plus roughly 1% of value per year for maintenance.

    Step 02

    Your next home

    $
    Down payment source
    %

    Pre-filled from the current Freddie Mac average. Override if you have a quote.

    Step 03

    Forecast assumptions

    %

    Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute forecast for Utah 2026 is 2 to 4 percent.

    %
    %
    %

    Defaults from Fannie Mae May 2026 forecast and MBA outlook. Override with your own view if you have one.

    The math says

    Calculating...

    Adjust the inputs on the left and the recommendation will update.

    Results

    Side by side, scenario by scenario

    Net position is equity gained, minus next-home cost increase, minus extra carrying costs.

    Scenario Sell Now Wait 6 mo Wait 12 mo Wait 24 mo
    Honest caveats

    What this math does not capture

    Life timing usually wins.

    Job changes, family size, schools, and aging-in-place needs almost always outweigh the math. If you need to move, the rate forecast is not your decision-maker.

    Forecasts are forecasts, not facts.

    Rates moved 0.6 percent in five weeks after the Iran conflict started in early 2026. Nobody saw that coming. The further out the forecast, the wider the error band.

    Your neighborhood is not the national market.

    Old Sorrel in Cedar City behaves differently than Bloomington Hills in St. George. Sand Hollow STR product behaves differently than Sky Ranch primary residences. Hyperlocal beats national every time.

    Selling and buying costs are excluded.

    The net position numbers do not include commission, title, closing concessions, or moving expenses. Run the seller net sheet for the full walk-away math.

    The math is only as good as your value estimate.

    If the current home value is off by even 5 percent, every scenario in the table above changes. Want a real number on your home before you make a decision this big?

    Get my actual home value See how I sell homes

    Calculator shows the math. The math is one input among many. Real decisions also factor in life timing, neighborhood conditions, and risk tolerance. Forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, Freddie Mac, and the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute as of May 16, 2026. Estimates only, actual results vary. Not tax advice; consult a CPA for tax implications.

    Real Southern Utah Scenarios

    Four sellers,
    four different answers.

    A walk through the kind of conversations I have most weeks. These are illustrative, not actual clients, but the math reflects the typical Southern Utah situation in each case. Run the calculator with each setup to confirm.

    Scenario A

    The Cedar City move-up

    Selling an Old Sorrel starter at $480K to buy a larger Cross Hollows home at $720K. Locked at 3.5 percent. Two kids, third on the way, ran out of space.

    The math says
    Sell now

    The next home is more expensive, so it appreciates in more dollars than the current home. Carrying costs eat the wait. Waiting 12 months typically costs this seller $12K to $18K, and 24 months runs $25K to $35K, depending on the appreciation assumption.

    Why it matters: This is the most common move-up pattern in Cedar City and the rate lock-in fear is loudest here. The math is also clearest here.
    Scenario B

    The St. George right-size

    Selling a Bloomington Hills two-story at $720K to buy a single-level Stone Cliff townhome at $525K. Empty nesters, ready to ditch the stairs and the yard. Locked at 4.0 percent.

    The math says
    It is close

    When the next home is smaller, the appreciation gap reverses in your favor. The decision depends almost entirely on appreciation assumptions. At 2 percent, waiting 12 months usually loses $5K to $8K. At 4 percent, it can win a couple thousand. Either way, life timing should drive this one.

    Why it matters: Right-sizers get the worst advice in real estate. The narrative is always "sell now," but for them the math is genuinely closer than the headlines suggest.
    Scenario C

    The Sand Hollow STR exit

    Selling a Sand Hollow STR condo at $410K, picked up in 2022 at $470K. Owner is tired of the management drag and the slowdown in nightly bookings. Cash buyer, no replacement home.

    The math says
    Sell now

    The vacation-rental segment is the softest part of the Southern Utah market right now. Hurricane Valley condo median fell 17 percent year over year and townhouse sales dropped 42 percent. Waiting on a recovery that may take years while paying HOA, taxes, and reduced revenue is usually the wrong move.

    Why it matters: This calculator is built for primary-residence math. For investors, the underlying math is similar but the comp set is different. Talk to me before listing an STR.
    Scenario D

    The new-construction wait

    Cedar City family wants a specific Old Sorrel Heights floor plan that does not break ground for nine months. Their current home is a $440K Stucki Farms rambler. Locked at 3.25 percent.

    The math says
    Plan, do not wait

    If the next home is fixed by a build timeline, the question is not "sell now or wait" but "rent or bridge." Run the buy-before-you-sell calculator instead. Sometimes builder incentives plus a coordinated sale beat trying to time both moves.

    Why it matters: If you are buying new construction, the timeline is dictated by the builder, not the rate forecast. Coordination matters more than calculator math.
    Under the Hood

    How the math
    actually works.

    Plain English. No jargon without a definition. If you want to look at the assumptions behind every number, here they are.

    Back to the calculator
    1
    Compound the appreciation

    For each waiting period, I compound your appreciation rate forward. A 3% annual rate over 12 months becomes 3% on the value. Over 24 months, 6.09% (because the second year compounds on the first). I apply the same rate to both your current home and your next home.

    2
    Calculate equity at sale

    Your equity is the appreciated value minus your mortgage balance. I do not model principal paydown during the wait, which is conservative on the wait side. For a 3.6% loan, that is roughly $4K to $6K of additional equity per year that I am leaving on the table for waiting.

    3
    Apply the new mortgage

    Loan amount is the appreciated next-home price minus your down payment (either your equity or a fixed cash amount). I run the standard 30-year amortization formula at the forecast rate for that waiting period. Payment differences flow into the result table.

    4
    Add carrying costs during the wait

    Your monthly carrying costs (taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance) get multiplied by the months you wait. I do not include the principal-and-interest payment because you would be making that anyway, but every other cost of holding the home counts.

    5
    Compute the net position

    Net position equals equity gained from waiting, minus the cost increase on the next home, minus carrying costs during the wait. Positive means waiting wins. Negative means selling now wins. If the spread is under $5,000, I call it a wash and recommend deciding on life timing instead of math.

    Common Questions

    What sellers ask
    at the kitchen table.

    Should I sell my Southern Utah home now or wait for rates to drop?
    Depends on the home you are selling and the home you are buying. For a typical Southern Utah move-up scenario (selling a smaller home, buying a larger one), the math usually favors selling now because the more expensive next home appreciates faster in dollar terms than your equity gains during the wait, and you also pay carrying costs the whole time. For a right-size scenario, the math is closer and sometimes waiting wins. For an investor selling a vacation rental or condo, the math often favors selling sooner because that segment is weaker right now.
    Are mortgage rates going to drop in 2026 or 2027?
    Probably not by much. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects the 30-year fixed at 6.3 to 6.4 percent through both 2026 and 2027. Fannie Mae expects 6.3 percent through the rest of 2026, easing to 6.2 percent by Q2 2027 and holding there. Freddie Mac reported 6.36 percent for the week of May 14, 2026. The consensus across all three is rates in the low to mid 6 percent range, not a return to 3 or 4 percent. If your plan to sell depends on a dramatic rate cut that has not been forecast by anyone, that is not a plan, it is a hope.
    Are home prices going up or down in Southern Utah?
    Flat to modestly positive, depending on city and property type. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute forecasts statewide appreciation of 2 to 4 percent for 2026. In St. George the median sale price has been roughly flat to slightly down year over year on single-family. Cedar City has held up better at entry-price bands. Townhouse and condo (especially vacation-rental product) have softened more than single-family. Run the calculator with both a 2% and a 4% appreciation assumption and see whether your answer changes. If it does, your decision is closer than it looks.
    What about the rate lock-in effect? I have a 3 percent mortgage.
    The rate lock-in is real but often misframed. The correct comparison is not your old payment versus your new payment. It is selling now versus selling later. If your reason to move is real (more space, less stairs, different neighborhood, closer to family, or financial right-sizing), then waiting for rates to drop only makes sense if waiting actually nets you more money. This calculator answers that question with numbers, not vibes.
    Does this calculator account for taxes on the sale?
    No. The headline net-position numbers exclude capital gains tax, selling costs, and moving expenses. For a Southern Utah primary residence sold under the federal exclusion ($250K single, $500K married), the gain is usually shielded. For investment property, gains beyond the exclusion, or anything unusual, run the capital gains estimator and consult a CPA. Selling costs typically run 7 to 8 percent of sale price; see the seller net sheet.
    How accurate are mortgage rate forecasts?
    Less accurate than people think. Fannie Mae, MBA, and Freddie Mac publish forecasts every month and revise them constantly. In March 2026, Fannie Mae was projecting rates in the high 5 percent range by year-end. Two months later, after the Iran conflict began, they revised that to 6.3 percent. The 6-month forecasts are reasonably calibrated. The 12-month forecasts have meaningful error bands. The 24-month forecasts are essentially educated guesses. Treat them accordingly.
    What if I want to buy before I sell?
    Different math, different calculator. The buy-before-you-sell calculator handles bridge financing, double-payment exposure, and timing risk on the contingent sale. Scott is dual-licensed as a REALTOR (listing agent on the home you sell) and a mortgage lender (financing on the home you buy), so the buy-before-sell coordination is one of the things he does most days. He is never both agent and lender on the same transaction; the buy-side agent is a trusted partner he refers in.
    More Tools

    Five more calculators
    built for Southern Utah sellers.

    Every one runs the same way as this one. No email gates, no marketing list, no signup wall. Just numbers.

    Seller Net Sheet
    What you actually walk away with.

    Full breakdown of commission, title, payoff, prorations, and concessions. The number that hits your bank.

    Run the math
    Equity Position
    How much equity do I have?

    Current value minus mortgage balance, with line-of-sight to costs of sale and your usable equity for the next move.

    Run the math
    Capital Gains
    Will I owe tax on the sale?

    Estimate your capital gains exposure. Primary residence exclusion, basis adjustments, and a CPA-ready summary.

    Run the math
    Buy Before You Sell
    Can I afford both at once?

    Bridge loan math, double-payment exposure, and the timing window where you can carry both homes safely.

    Run the math
    Right-Size & Pocket Cash
    How much cash comes out?

    For sellers right-sizing into a smaller home. How much cash you keep, how much your payment changes, what taxes look like.

    Run the math
    All Calculators
    See the full set.

    Six seller calculators, all free, all updated regularly. Each one funnels back to a real home valuation when you are ready.

    View all
    The Real Number

    Let’s start with
    your actual home value.

    No pressure, no signup wall, no marketing list. A real comparative market analysis on your specific home, in your specific Southern Utah pocket. That number anchors every other decision.

    Get my home value (435) 357-4345